The U.S. Federal reserve’s policy making arm, the Federal Open Market Committee ( FOMC) will go into a two day huddle on Tuesday-Wednesday to take a call on the interest rates. The biggest question on the minds of investors and traders alike, cutting across asset classes and geographies, is whether the Fed will begin to taper its $85 billion asset purchase programme .
While this question has been on the mind of the investors for a long time, it really caught the fancy of the markets when the minutes of the last FOMC meeting on April 30- 1st May were released on May 22. The minutes showed that some members had urged that Fed tighten its stand from the June meeting itself.
In fact May 22 has been a watershed day in the global markets because volatility has increased since then in the stocks, currencies and commodities.
However, we believe that the Fed is unlikely to begin tapering its bind buying programme in a hurry for the following reasons
1. Economic data is far from encouraging
The non-farm payroll growth for the month of May came in at 1,75,000. Though this was greater than expectations, one must appreciate the fact that a three month average job creation at 1,55,000 is the lowest since October 2012, when the Fed began its QE3. The Unemployment rate increased to 7.6% from 7.5% in April, as more Americans began looking for jobs.
2. Targets not reached as yet
The Fed has clearly stated two targets for itself before it begins to unwind. And those two targets are attaining full employment ( read an unemployment rate of 6.5%) and Inflation crossing the 2% limit. Both the targets are quite a distance away. The unemployment rate has been just discussed above and the inflation in the past twelve months is just 0.74%. The core inflation is at the lowest in more than 50 years.
3. Budget Deficit continues to be an issue
The budget deficit for the month of May came in at $138.7 billion. The expectation was for deficit of $110 billion. There is a hole in Uncle Sam’s pocket and the Bond buying by the Fed temporarily plugs that hole. At present the Fed is funding almost 75% of all treasury issuances. If the Fed was to stop printing, the investors will demand a higher yield, which the U.S. can’t afford at this time.
4. Abenomics is failing
Japanese Prime Minister Abe’s agenda of a weakening the Yen has run into rough weather. While one could weaken the Yen but it was difficult to find takers for the Japanese bonds simultaneously. Who would buy the bonds of a continuously weakening currency?
The day the Bank of Japan paused in its approach, the markets sold off. The Nikkei plunged into bearish territory by falling 20% from its recent high before bouncing back on Friday.
The global markets were considerably disrupted by the change in stance of the Bank of Japan and the subsequent sell off in the equity markets. In this light it is highly unlikely that the Fed would want to rock the boat at this point of time.
If there is one valid reason for the U.S. Fed to taper its bond purchase programme, it is that the Fed does not want to be blamed for creating an asset bubble.
After being partially responsible for creating and blowing up the bubble that burst spectacularly in 2008, the Fed has now almost the full responsibility for regulation of the financial sector. Over these years, the Fed has taken measures to impart liquidity and stimulus to the economy in various forms. If the bubble bursts this time, there is no mistaking who holds the smoking gun this time. Therefore, the Fed would neither allow nor be perceived as abetting an asset bubble to inflate and then ultimately burst. It is this common sense that may prompt the Fed to think of cutting back its stimulus, when it actually does.
But that time has not come as yet. At its forthcoming meeting the U.S. Fed will just maintain the status-quo.
V.K.Sharma